If the early 2000s were marked by the global war on terror, the 2010s by post-crisis economic recovery and the rise of populism, the 2020s appear set to become the decade of rage, unrest and shifting geopolitical sands. InsiderRelease February 2, 2021 4 min read. Data will become the new oil. Your email address will not be published. Gauging the China-Iran Deal, Great Power Competition Comes to the Middle East: Iraq and the China-Iran Agreement, Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls, US-Philippine Alliance: Duterte Demands US ‘Pay’ to Salvage Troop Deal, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tantalum Supply & Demand, ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique, COVID-19: A ‘Hot Potato’ for Nationalist-Populist Parties in Europe, COVID-19: New Waves Emerge in Europe and North America, Backgrounder: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Rise of a “Drone Superpower?” Turkish Drones Upending Russia’s Near Abroad, Turning Inward: GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds Reinvent Themselves in the COVID Era, EU-China Investment Agreement Casts Europe as a Great Power, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tin Supply & Demand. Geopolitical tensions increase (Daily analysis 22.05.2020) 22 May 2020 13:21 | Bartosz Grejner China's plans for Hong Kong escalate the already existing serious tension in relations with the US. Geopolitical Predictive Analysis – May 2020 May 20. Learn more about The Cipher Brief's Network here. David Knight 446 Views Here’s All The Evidence Of Election Fraud In 2020 We Have So Far - Joe Hoft, Gateway Pundit. Delivering Daily Geopolitical News, Intelligence and Risk-Analysis focusing on Political, Regime, Manufacturing, Macroeconomic, Energy, Climate, technology, Cybercrime, Military and Terrorism matters ...GEOPoliticalMatters.com In contrast, the U.S. federal government has yet to dedicate the resources necessary to meet the domestic terrorism challenge. In 2020, the U.S. Presidential election will be mired in innuendo and false narratives that will make it difficult for the American electorate to divine fact from fiction. geopolitical factors were associated with implementation. To our knowledge, this is the first multi-region analysis of NCD policy implementation covering 78% of UN member states, and the first study to quantitively examine national political characteristics and … African Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. Attacks in El Paso, Pittsburgh, and Poway reflected a shift from a domestic threat inspired by Salafi jihadist groups like the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda to one where radicalized individuals take inspiration from Nazi propaganda or disdain for immigrant communities. Nord Stream 2 is a $10.5 billion project that will deliver Russian natural gas to Europe through a pipeline being built in the Baltic Sea. Skip to content. In a recent phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both pledged support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. But how will it affect the Indo-Pacific? Washington has long worried that the project will make Europe generally and Germany more specifically vulnerable to and overly dependent on Russia. Twitter, in contrast, has banned political ads. This was the path chosen by Alexander the Great, 328 years before Christ. InsiderRelease January 31, 2021 3 min read. The Soleimani killing greatly increases the chances of war between Washington and Tehran with the Iranians likely to implement a multi-phase approach to reduce American influence in the Middle East, beginning in Iraq. Palma is re-taken by security forces in Mozambique, Peruvians head to the polls, and Russian troops amass near the Ukrainian border. We then use text analysis to calculate the frequency of their appearance in the Refinitiv Broker Report and Dow Jones Global Newswire databases as well as on Twitter. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. In this year’s Political Risk Outlook, we kick off by taking a forensic look at the upsurge in civil unrest. Middle East Gamechanger? Within the next decade, China will inevitably eclipse the United States and take over the mantle as the world’s economic engine. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … It is difficult to disaggregate these events, which are shaping their respective countries and challenging existing systems of governance. 2020 is likely to continue a series of historical changes that drive events across different regions of the world. In late 2019, anti-Semitic attacks and acts of vandalism defacing Jewish cemeteries increased, especially in the New York/New Jersey metro area. “According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on August 23, 2020, ‘For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. Nine key geopolitical forces will shape global politics in the 2020s: 1. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. A range of factors have contributed to these protests, including corruption and inept governance; changing demographics and rapid population growth; incompetent natural resource management; and devastating poverty, marginalization, and inequality. GEOPOLITICS: Eternal Brexit - Analysis By George Friedman posted on September 10, 2020 via GEOPoliticalMatters.com In 2016, the British government called for a referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union. Five geopolitical trends to watch closely in the coming year are the continued proliferation of disinformation; rising anti-Semitism and the globalization of anti-Semitism and white supremacy extremism; an international system shifting from unipolar to multipolar; the momentum of worldwide protest movements; and the importance of energy as a significant determinant of states’ foreign and security policies. Many of the protests, particularly those that swept throughout the Middle East, featured external intervention by states working through proxies to affect the outcome of the demonstrations. Executive Seminar 1 The Essentials of Geopolitical Analysis . The most serious threat may be the convergence of ‘deepfake’ technology and analytical tools that mine personal data to identify swing-voters most susceptible to altered videos designed to influence their beliefs. Each of these trends presents complex problems for the global community and requires collaboration between states and non-state actors, the public and private sectors, corporations, and civil society organizations. Even so, the common geopolitical threads of a second Trump presidency are actually pretty easy to discern. The most urgent crisis in 2020 is how the conflict between the United States and Iran unfolds, but each of these trends presents complex challenges for the global community and to deal with effectively, require collaboration between states and non-state actors, the public and private sectors, corporations, and civil society organizations. Supply chains will be forced to shift rapidly away from geopolitical hotspots. Many of these challenges overlap with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. The United States recently enacted sanctions targeting the project, including all businesses and individuals involved in the construction of the pipeline. Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Ryan Bohl, highlights three key geopolitical trends for the coming year. Europe’s populist parties haven’t thrived amid COVID-19 – but their ideas have. Many conservative journalists are ‘informed’ in their political analysis by a certain narrative of how things will pan out near the End Times. This seminar introduces the main components and methodology of geopolitical analysis and integrates a case study assessment and exercise. Your comment will be posted pending moderator approval. Dates: will be communicated. No ad hominem attacks will be posted. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global affairs. The move is widely believed to be an attempt to block a conglomeration of states—Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt—in their quest to streamline gas from the eastern Mediterranean. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.’” Some of the most pressing issues, including climate change, can only be tackled throughout cooperation and multi-stakeholder buy-in. Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. Both Russia and China welcome recent events and would be content to see the United States forced to expend precious time and finite resources dealing with the fallout with Iran. Your email address will not be published. Many demonstrations retain overwhelmingly parochial characteristics, while some are more regional in scope, and yet others are more global in nature. Early vaccine euphoria is fading as policymakers grapple with resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe and North America. Yet, Twitter has decided only to potentially flag, but not remove, political deepfakes. Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Five defining elements are reshaping the globe, geopolitics and societies. Africa is an immense continent, characterized by deep differences and internal complexity. The recent China-Iran agreement presents Baghdad with a profound geopolitical choice: the United States or China? Both laws, however, have significant flaws. May 18, 2020 al The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part I (NB: Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next report will be published on June 1.) Notes: We identify specific words related to geopolitical risk in general and to our top risks. Insider Release wanted to analyze the geopolitical situation in … Biotech will become a critical component of national power. Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. Bruce Hoffman is a professor at Georgetown University and the Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis Visiting Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations. All of the recent frictions underpinning the US-Philippine alliance are on display in recent attempts to renegotiate the Visiting Forces Agreement. SIGN UP FOR A CIPHER BRIEF MEMBERSHIP PLAN TO ACCESS EXCLUSIVE CONTENT. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Politically, the United States’ ability to leverage alliances has diminished, especially as President Trump has publicly questioned the value of institutions like NATO. Ancient Underground Tunnels 2020 Documentary Subterranean Worlds Span The Entire Earth. Toward the end of last year, Turkey and Libya signed an accord with Libya’s internationally-recognized government that would create an exclusive economic zone between the southern shore of Turkey in the Mediterranean to the northeastern coast of Libya. A Certificate in Geopolitical Analysis can be obtained upon completion of the course. But governing won’t be easy for the winner. Globally engaged individuals and organizations join Stratfor Worldview for objective geopolitical intelligence and analysis that reveals the underlying significance and future implications of emerging world events. Another area where geopolitics and energy security are converging rapidly is in the eastern Mediterranean. or would it prove to be a geopolitical game‘-changer’, creating a world profoundly ... we assess how the pandemic has affected previously existing geopolitical trends. Geopolitics African Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like? The Battle for Planet Earth is reaching a climax as opposing forces try to use the “coronavirus pandemic” to achieve their agendas. As globalization proceeds unabated, authoritarian countries are seeking to harden their borders, even as social media transcends all physical boundaries and influences citizens and populations in different ways. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. Asian conflicts are booming. *** UPDATES *** November 1 2020: A summer of fighting saw India lose control over about 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of land along the disputed mountainous terrain, according to Indian officials familiar with the situation. Many of these challenges overlap and interact with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. Required fields are marked *. Asian Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. Preparedness and comprehensive, systematic risk analysis will be imperative to minimizing losses and maximizing opportunities in 2020. On an international level, there are explicit global security threats posed by deepfakes, including conflict that could spill over from the virtual to the physical world. Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit. … Over the past few years, terrorism in the United States has been chiefly perpetrated by individuals associated with an anti-Semitic and white supremacist worldview. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. CSIS’s Risk and Foresight Group created four plausible, differentiated scenarios to explore the changing geopolitical landscape of 2025-2030, including the potential lasting first- and second-order effects of Covid-19. HSE University is one of the top research universities in Russia. An early December shooting targeting Jews at a kosher grocery store in Jersey City by individuals linked to the Black Israelite movement, an anti-Semitic hate group, resulted in five deaths.